ATSG expects cargo market to shrink in 2023

Air Transport Services Group (ATSG) presented its operational plans, including the cargo market slowdown. As a result, the group plans to make changes to its freighter fleet.

Rich Corrado, president, and CEO of ATSG stated in this regard that «despite macroeconomic headwinds, we expect moderate growth in 2023. Leasing demand for our newly converted freighters remains as strong as ever. It is clear that 2023 will be a transition year for us, due to a changing fleet of aircraft in service.»

As for its outlook for freighter leasing and group airline operations in 2023, ATSG expects several developments in the short to medium term. On the one hand, through its Cargo Aircraft Management subsidiary, it plans to complete the conversion to freighters of fourteen Boeing 767-300 aircraft in 2023 and sixteen in 2024. Most of these aircraft will be delivered to customers based outside the United States.

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Separately, the group expects to deliver at least six Airbus A321-200P2F aircraft to satisfy customer orders in Europe and Asia. The forecast for 2024 is similar. As with any modification to commercial aircraft, deliveries are pending EASA certification, which ATSG expects before mid-2023.

In addition, the company expects to begin converting thirty Airbus A330-300s to freighters. CAM expects to begin leasing these aircraft in 2024 and has already received customer commitments for more than two-thirds of the aircraft. The company expects Amazon to continue using four of the twelve Boeing 767-200s it currently has. The other eight, meanwhile, will expire between May and September 2023, and at least three will be retired due to airframe life limitations.

Finally, ATSG believes that DHL and Amazon will operate their cargo 767s at a reduced rate. Both companies are adjusting their ground and air distribution networks to accommodate reduced economic growth and consumer spending levels in the first half of 2023.