It finally happened what many analysts denied, surely because of their unconscious wishes that it would not become a cruel reality, but the Russian invasion of Ukraine is in full effect.
Russian troops advanced at breakneck speed during the first day and a half of the offensive, from several fronts simultaneously, on Ukrainian territory, without encountering organized and effective resistance (which is not to say that the Ukrainians are not doing their best).
Although it now appears that the defenders recovered from the initial shock and managed to stop the Russian advance in several locations.
Numerous media report the progress of the Kremlin forces on the Ukrainian resistance. Even of the seizure of airfields near Kiev by means of heliborne air assaults. This freedom of movement of the Russian troops is only possible because during the first hours of hostilities, a real rain of missiles fell on the Ukrainian command centers, arsenals, airfields, bunkers and air defense systems, ensuring the domination of the Russian airspace over the whole theater of operations.
Achievement of air dominance
There is no doubt about the superiority of Russian military means over Ukrainian ones, both numerically and qualitatively. However, the first war actions were executed from the safety of one’s own airspace. Russia attacked a large number of Ukrainian defense nerve centers using various means, such as Iskander ballistic missiles, long-range artillery and cruise missiles, launched both from the sea and from bombers such as the Tu-95 Bear.
The Ukrainian Air Force, at least on the books, had 43 MiG-29s, 12 Su-24s, 17 Su-25s and 26 Su-27s, plus several transport and helicopter aircraft. But economic and logistical difficulties after the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 caused the fleet’s operability to drop sharply. The number of fighters in a position to perform air defense functions or interdict Russian forces must have been very low.
#Ukraine ????????: somewhere near #Kyiv a Ukrainian MiG-29 (low-flying) is taking on a Russian Su-35. pic.twitter.com/qpdJo12uzV
— Thomas van Linge (@ThomasVLinge) February 24, 2022
A video of a pair of Ukrainian MiG-29s could be seen after takeoff, probably looking to intercept an enemy air raid. It is also known of a Su-27 Flanker that after performing its air combat patrol, had to head to Romania, where it was escorted by a pair of F-16s, looking for a place to land after losing contact with its home base. A downed Ukrainian An-26 cargo plane was also shown on video.
Released photo of fully armed #Ukraine ????????Air Force Su-27 Flanker at Bacau Air Base #Romania ???????? https://t.co/QRpX4inqvZ pic.twitter.com/4ZKT52F5sn
— Joseph Dempsey (@JosephHDempsey) February 24, 2022
After that, no more reliable news about Ukrainian combat aviation emerged. Whether most of the aircraft were shot down in the air, destroyed on the ground, or their bases rendered inoperative by Russian attacks, we still do not know. It is probably a combination of all these factors, coupled with the breakdown of communications and command and control capabilities. The result is unequivocal, the Ukrainian Air Force and medium/long range anti-aircraft defense were eliminated as a threat during the first act of this war.
Ground and air assault
After clearing the skies above 4,500/5,000 meters (maximum effective range of most shoulder-launched missiles) of severe threats, the ground invasion from several fronts began.
I made a basic map, with red arrows, which I have held off from posting because I believed it would not be responsible to put something out like that unless it was clear the war had begun. This is just one very incomplete estimate of what the Russian op plan might look like. pic.twitter.com/FQDcwV5MpV
— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) February 24, 2022
From Crimea to the south, Russian forces penetrated the Ukrainian defenses. One column appears to have headed in the direction of the port city of Odessa, in order to cut off the Ukrainian outlet to the sea. Another group advanced eastward to join the troops emerging from the Dombas, encircling the Ukrainian forces holed up in the area. Fighting is currently taking place in the port city of Mariupol, atleast from yesterdey.
To the north-east, Russian forces entered Ukrainian territory and there is fighting on the outskirts of cities such as Chuhuiv, Krarkiv and Sumy, but their advance seems to be stoped.
To the north, from Belarus, advancing Kremlin forces managed to take control of Chernobyl and have reached the outskirts of north Kiev, in an attempt to quickly end this war, seeking to «cut off the head of the snake». To this end, an airborne assault force took the Hostomel airport after nine hours of heavy fighting, with heavy casualties on both sides.
The operation involved 34 helicopters, of which 3 or more were reportedly shot down, including some Ka-52 Alligators, most likely by the use of shoulder-launched anti-aircraft missiles, or MANPADS. This operation is evidence that the Ukrainian Air Force has been reduced to impotence, otherwise it would have been impossible for this helicopter force to reach its destination without suffering massive losses.
Video from the scene confirms that this particular Helicopter was struck and badly damaged by MANPADS fire. pic.twitter.com/VIjkQQgTOu
— ???????? Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) February 24, 2022
And NATO?
The US, Poland, UK and other NATO members, in preparation for the impending conflict, have been supplying anti-tank weapons, light anti-air missiles, ammunition and other equipment, as well as personnel training, to strengthen Ukraine’s defensive capabilities.
But on more than one occasion the organization has stated that it will defend the territorial integrity of the member states, but that it will not engage in fighting against Russia in Ukraine.
Undoubtedly, during the last few weeks the defense of nearby countries, such as Romania or the Baltic countries, has been greatly reinforced, but they will not intervene militarily beyond their borders.
.@NATO fighters are patrolling the skies over @PLinNATO and @RomaniaNATO to ensure the security of Alliance territory. This increase to the Air Policing posture will help better protect Allied airspace following the Russian incursion into Ukraine#WeAreNATO pic.twitter.com/ZO3iQ2pz80
— NATO Air Command (@NATO_AIRCOM) February 24, 2022
There are reports that several official Russian sites were hacked, and that is perhaps the most direct action NATO is willing to indulge in, in addition to sharing any intelligence they can generate with Ukrainian commanders.
But the fighting continues
Although Russia enjoys almost total domination of the airspace over Ukraine, the fighting will be decided on the ground, and Russian advances will be slowed in the terrible urban fighting. In fact, there are reports that the Zelensky government has already distributed more than 10,000 assault rifles among the civilian population of Kiev, and is appealing to any Ukrainian who is able to fight to join the resistance.
Russian troops have moved at great speed to break the back of the Ukrainian resistance and force Kiev (or change the government for one favorable to Moscow’s reasons.) to sign agreements admitting the existence of a Crimea and the Donbass region as independent republics, or under a special status, as well as to force disarmament and a commitment not to seek NATO membership.
Looks like a Mi-24 helicopter, probably Russian, being shot down over Kherson.https://t.co/cVh8mX5znc pic.twitter.com/nouUAdvY4X
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) February 26, 2022
However, wars are highly dynamic and «no plan survives contact with the enemy». Kiev steal resist and there are reports that on some fronts Ukrainian defenses are achieving victories.
According to ukrainian sources, Russia has lost 14 warplanes and 8 helicopters so far. According to some videos posted on social networks recently, the use of a large number of low-level MANPADS air defense systems is evident. They are surely responsible for most of the shoot downs, not the Ukrainian Air Force.
It is very difficult to get clear information under these circumstances. Many of the news that emerge in the networks and media, lack forms of verification, and should not be taken for certain automatically. And that is without taking into account the disinformation or propaganda campaigns of one side or the other.
From Aviacionline we will try to cover the events of this unfortunate war, with the utmost care and our best criteria, to provide you with the most reliable information possible.
