Dubai 2021: In the next-generation freighter war, the Boeing 777X is already losing

In the run-up to the Dubai Airshow, one of the great speculations revolved around the presentation of the new generation of dedicated freighters, as a logical consequence of the explosion of the segment that was the pillar of the industry during the pandemic.

The sharp increase in the use of e-commerce, driven by the extensive global restrictions on mobility, and the logistics of inputs and vaccines made 2020 and 2021 undoubtedly the year of air cargo. In addition, the absence of commercial traffic deprived logistics chains of 50% of their capacity: belly cargo.

From temporary and hasty conversions of passenger aircraft (which are already returning to their original configuration) to the flood of definitive conversions to freighters, the aviation industry identified a need to respond with a better performing product to the needs of operators worldwide.

Also, the development of a wide-body cargo product responds to a certainty: the retraction of international travel and the time it will take to fully recover it threatens the production line and orders of the projects that provide the best returns to manufacturers.

Moreover, of the two projects, the Boeing 777X has far more at stake than an eventual freighter version: with the passenger operators that had ordered the model almost certainly looking to reduce orders by at least a third, if the backlog and production line lifetime are not increased quickly, the financial sustainability of the entire project will be seriously compromised.

For these reasons, the Dubai Airshow was expected to be the arena where the industry’s two biggest cargo innovations would be unveiled: the Boeing 777X Freighter and the Airbus A350F. But in the first hours of the event – technically, before it even started – it was already known that this will not be the occasion for Boeing to announce the variant.

Ihssane Mounir, Boeing’s head of sales, said in advance that the manufacturer «is not yet at the right time» to announce the Freighter version of the 777-8 or any firm order. Christian Scherer, Airbus sales chief, said the European manufacturer expects to announce a firm order «soon,» which he did not rule out during the event.

Middle Eastern airlines and more precisely Qatar are the most coveted customer prospects for the new freighters, and an announcement at the region’s own signature event would be the ideal place to make the first move. Boeing seems to have missed the first train but can still make a splash. Airbus seems better profiled and is waiting because taking the first step with the A350F could put the viability of the entire B777X project in serious trouble.